The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced the nominees for the 97th Academy Awards on Thursday, January 23, 2025. Here are my initial reactions, thoughts, and predictions for each category.
Best Picture
Prediction: The Brutalist
Thoughts: While I would love to see Conclave take home the prize, I think The Brutalist, Brady Corbet’s three-and-a-half-hour American epic will win. This year, there’s no clear frontrunner (think last year’s Oppenheimer), but I believe The Brutalist has the best shot. Emelia Pérez, the most nominated film of the year (13 noms) has an outside chance of winning, although it has a better shot of winning International Feature. I could see the box office hit Wicked, being a potential dark horse. That being said, my money is on The Brutalist.
Best Directing
Prediction: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Thoughts: Corbet seems like a lock. He won the Golden Globe and has been nominated for every major award. The film is epic in scope and storytelling, and his singular vision is evident in every frame. The fact that it was shot in VistaVision, a format not used since the early 1960s, adds to its unique aesthetic.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Prediction: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Thoughts: I think this award is Brody’s to lose, especially after winning the Golden Globe. Some of his problematic past behavior may catch up to him, but I doubt it. People online seem to think it’s between Brody and Timothée Chalamet, but I think if anyone can give Brody a run for his money, it would be Ralph Fiennes. He’s been a consistent performer over the last four decades, starring in everything from dramas to Wes Anderson comedies, to James Bond movies and beyond. Ironically enough, the first film I remember seeing him in was Harry Potter. As I mentioned, Conclave was my favorite film of 2024, and I think a large part of that is due to Fienne’s towering performance. I also find it funny how his first nomination was for playing a Nazi war criminal in Schindler’s List and his most recent is for playing a Cardinal in the Catholic Church. Talk about range!
I have to talk about that surprise Sebastian Stan nomination. The four slots belonging to Brody, Chalamet, Domingo, and Fiennes were determined early on. In every award season, it seems like there is a wild card fifth slot. This year, it went to Sebastian Stan for his portrayal of Donald Trump in The Apprentice. Many, like myself, thought it would go to Daniel Craig in Queer, for which he was nominated for the SAG Award. Going into Oscar nominations morning, it seemed likely that Jeremy Strong would get a Best Supporting Actor nomination, after securing a SAG nomination, and he did. The film kind of came and went without much attention. No studio would touch it with a ten-foot pole. Despite that, the film was made and earned two nominations. I had no desire to watch this film. I try to keep my posts as apolitical as possible, but I am so sick of Trump. I’m tired of everything about him. However, once the nominations were out, I decided to watch. I was surprised by how much I liked the film. Stan is nearly unrecognizable as Trump, but Stan isn’t playing the Trump we know now. He’s playing the Trump of 1973 where he still had his humanity. The film, overall, is about Trump’s relationship with the reprehensible Roy Cohn, whose philosophies would help to create the man who now occupies the White House.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Prediction: Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Thoughts: This is a tough category to call. I am going with Torres because she won the Globe. That being said, she is the only performance I haven’t seen. On the other nominees: I don’t see Erivo winning. Demi Moore and Mikey Madison would be worthy winners, but I just can’t tell. Gascón seems unlikely to win for two reasons. The first is that I’m not sure if enough voters would vote for a transgender actress. The second and most important, is category fraud. I believe that she is the supporting role and Zoe Saldaña is the lead, but Netflix campaigned them the other way around.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Prediction: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Thoughts: There’s not a clear winner in this category like last year (Robert Downey Jr.). I’ve seen each performance and they each could win and I would have no qualms. That being said, I think Culkin has the best shot. He won the Golden Globe and has been acting since he was a child. That could sway voters towards his performance.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Prediction: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Thoughts: I think Saldaña is the closest thing to a lock in the acting category (even though her supporting status is debatable). I thought her performance was the best part of the movie. Going into the Golden Globes, it was down to Saldaña and Ariana Grande for Wicked. Once Saldaña won the Globe, it became clear to me that the Oscar wasn’t far out of sight.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Prediction: Conclave
Thoughts: The film won Best Screenplay at the Golden Globes. I think it’s the strongest of the nominees. Nickel Boys is the only film I can see possibly being a dark horse winner. Unfortunately, I think this will be the only category Conclave wins in.
Best Original Screenplay
Prediction: The Substance
Thoughts: This was a tough one. I was going back and forth between Anora and The Substance. Ultimately, I settled on The Substance because I don’t think it would win in Directing or Picture, and most likely not for Best Actress. If it was going to win any award, I think it would win for its screenplay. Horror films like Get Out and The Exorcist also walked away with Screenplay Oscars, so it wouldn’t be far-fetched to see them win in this category.
Best Animated Feature
Prediction: The Wild Robot
Thoughts: The only nominee I’ve seen in this category is Inside Out 2. Pixar’s days of unquestionable dominance at the Oscars are over. Perhaps if it were an original film and not a sequel, the film would have a better shot. Despite the film’s critical acclaim, I’ve heard nothing but positive things about The Wild Robot. The fact that it got into Original Score, I feel, will boost its chances.
Best Animated Short
Prediction: Wander to Wonder
Thoughts: I’ve seen no films in the category. This is just a guess.
Best Cinematography
Prediction: The Brutalist
Thoughts: I have to echo everything I said about Corbet for Best Director. The cinematographer and director work together to create a shared vision. I would be incredibly surprised if the film didn’t win.
Best Costume Design
Prediction: Wicked
Thoughts: Of all of Wicked’s nominations, this feels like the best chance it has of winning. It would be a worthy winner for makeup/hairstyling, score, and visual effects, but I think a win in this category would make the most sense.
Best Film Editing
Prediction: Anora
Thoughts: I mentioned this while discussing the Original Screenplay category, but Anora was my close second. I think Anora will win Film Editing for three reasons. Number one, the editing is great. Number two, it’s not often that one man is credited with writing, producing, directing, and editing the same film as Sean Baker is. Third, if the Academy wants to honor both Baker and Coralie Fargeat (writer of The Substance), this would be the way to do it.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Prediction: Nosferatu
Thoughts: I haven’t seen this film, but from the trailers alone, the makeup looked impressive enough. If the film was going to win only one award, I would give it this one.
Best Live Action Short Film
Prediction: The Last Ranger
Thoughts: I’ve seen no films in the category. This is just a guess.
Best Original Score
Prediction: The Brutalist
Thoughts: I liked the score, and how the composer infused the flavors of optimism, defeat, triumph, and sadness with patriotic tunes. That’s how simple my reasoning is.
Best Original Song
Prediction: “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez
Thoughts: I have no strong feelings in this category. I’m picking this song because it won the Golden Globe.
Best Documentary Feature Film
Prediction: Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Thoughts: I’ve seen no films in the category. This is just a guess. I also like the title.
Best Documentary Short Film
Prediction: I Am Ready, Warden
Thoughts: I’ve seen no films in the category. This is just a guess.
Best International Feature Film
Prediction: Emilia Pérez
Thoughts: I mentioned that this was the most nominated film of the year, Academy members seem to like it, but many filmgoers I’ve spoken to or interacted with online, dislike it. I think the Academy’s compromise will award it for Best International Feature and not Best Picture.
Best Production Design
Prediction: The Brutalist
Thoughts: Again, this film was a beautiful spectacle. The production designer works with the director and cinematographer to bring the film to the big screen. It only makes sense that the film would win for Production Design.
Best Sound
Prediction: A Complete Unknown
Thoughts: Though the film got eight nominations, I don’t think it has a chance in Best Picture, Director, or any of the acting categories. That leaves Costume Design and Sound. As you saw above, I gave my vote for Costume Design to Wicked. In a film so heavily inspired by music, particularly Dylan’s folk and later electric, it makes sense to me that this film would win Best Sound.
Best Visual Effects
Prediction: Dune: Part Two
Thoughts: Not much to say here. Dune: Part One won six Oscars, but I feel like it had the benefit of being released when movie theaters were still just slowly starting to re-open from COVID. It didn’t have a whole lot of competition. Given how much competition Dune: Part Two has, I think if it was going to walk away with one win, it would be in this category.
Those are my thoughts and reflections on this year’s Oscar nominees. Except for that Sebastian Stan nomination, nothing was too out of the ordinary. We’ll see what happens on March 2.